And Then There Was One

 

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On The Path To Financial Freedom

To this point, the path toward financial freedom has been straight forward. The budget is in place. All consumer debt has been paid off, including cars, student loans and credit cards. Emergency fund is all set. Same is true with college savings for our last child in the house. We are saving and investing 15% toward retirement and tithing 10% to our church. And any left over money gets invested in a taxed account that will be used for future purchases.  Last, everything is automated so it “just happens”. Now, time and compound interest should produce results that lead toward freedom freedom. So far, so good. Now there’s only one debt left to deal with, the home mortgage, so the big question is: Do we pay off the mortgage, our last debt,  or do we invest that money to meet future needs?

Two Choices, Is One Better?

I think the choice between paying off an existing mortgage on a primary residence or investing that money to growth wealth is a matter of priority between financial freedom and financial independence. They are the same thing, you might say? I don’t think they are. Financial freedom puts peace of mind at a priority, including freedom from money worries and anxiety. So that would favor paying off the mortgage, because a debt, any debt, is an obligation that presumes we know and can control the future. Unknown-3It presumes we can make all the payments, but that is not a sure thing. Because in a 30 year mortgage, (15 year mortgage if you are really savvy), a number of things can go wrong that are out of your control and could prevent you, or hinder you greatly, from paying the mortgage like job loss, physical injury or other family health related issues. Yes, an emergency fund certainly helps in these circumstances, but if peace of mind and total freedom from money worry is the top priority, you probably would pay off the mortgage as soon as possible to ensure you always have a place to live.

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The Total Money Makeover: Classic Edition: A Proven Plan for Financial Fitness

Financial independence, on the other hand, prioritizes choice over freedom. And it is quite possible that investing the money, instead of paying off the mortgage, can provide more choices. Choices like work (or not to work) choices, location choices and purchase choices. The assumption here is that the return on the money invested is greater than the savings in interest paid on the mortgage. And for the last ten years, including the financial recession of 2008-2009, that has clearly been the case. First, let’s look at the math.

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The Math – The Easy Part

Simply put, the cost savings by paying off the mortgage in the last ten years has been significantly less than the return on investment if that money was put into any S&P500 Index Fund for investment. This is how it works out for me: Mortgage interest rate of 3.875% minus the mortgage interest tax break (use a conservative tax rate of just 10%) gives you an effective cost of the mortgage money around 3.5%. Another way of saying this is that the financial benefit of paying off your mortgage is roughly a 3.5% return on your money. Compare that with investing that same money in a simple S&P500 Index Fund for the same time period, ten years, which according to Fidelity Investments, returned 7.5% annually, not including dividends. Minus out the taxes on that return and you have an after tax return of roughly 6.7%, or almost double the return when compared to paying off the mortgage!

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But There’s More

The math between our two choices is the easy part. Clearly, investing money instead of paying off the mortgage will generate more value. In my example, investing produces almost two times the return as paying off the mortgage. But there are several other factors to consider:

  • Peace of mind – Clearly paying off the mortgage will give you great peace of mind but it will cost you. In my ten year example, the investment difference of investing the money instead of paying down the mortgage is worth over $115,000! That is a high cost for peace of mind but for those that are truly risk adverse, it may be still worth it to pay off the mortgage.
  • Cost of the mortgage – If your mortgage interest rate is over 5%, the financial freedom of paying off the mortgage may be worth it, since the financial benefit of investing the money is much smaller. But, something else to consider, if your mortgage interest rate is that high, consider refinancing your mortgage. Today’s rates are much lower.

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It’s A Personal Decision, Possibly An Expensive One!

For me the decision is simple, because my investments actually did far better than average over the past ten years, (10% including reinvested dividends) and my mortgage rate is fixed at 3.875%, I choose to continue to invest our money instead of using that money to pay off the mortgage. Our six months of expenses emergency fund gives us peace of mind as far as making the mortgage payments, as does our long term disability insurance. Worst case, I can change my mind any time and pay off the mortgage with a portion of the investments. But the priority is to invest the money for a greater return. Assuming my wife and I live an average life span and we keep the money invested in the market, we can expect to earn about $400,000 more dollars by this decision than if we decided to pay off the mortgage. That certainly helps calm the nerves about having a mortgage!

What do you think? This is what I think: Financial freedom (or independence) is hard work, but it is worth it!

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The Total Money Makeover: Classic Edition: A Proven Plan for Financial Fitness

One thought on “And Then There Was One

  1. Great post showing the pros and cons of both methods. For me I feel that, if you know how to invest, you should invest. Because you can possibly get better returns, although how much to invest would depend on how confident you are in your ability. It really differs from person to person.

    Liked by 1 person

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